Photo of an American Beech Tree

Summary of the Article

On February 25th, 2018, The Associated Press (AP) published an article about the increased coverage of American Beech trees seen in the Northeastern United States after researchers from the University of Maine and Purdue University released a report on their findings earlier in the year. Using data from the U.S Forest Services from 1983 to 2014, researchers were able to determine that the Hardwood Forests (also known as Beech-Birch-Maple Forests) of the Northeastern United States has seen a distinct increase in the coverage of beech trees in recent years while the presence of maple trees and birch trees have decreased during the same period. The researchers warn that the effects of climate change are likely the main driver of the latest rise in beech trees. They also warn that logging and timberland industries could be significantly impacted in the future as these industries rely heavily on the maple trees that grow in this ecosystem. However, other researchers say that the exact future impacts of climate change on the Northeastern Hardwood Forests are unknown.

A Changing Climate

One of the states that has seen an increase of beech trees is Vermont. In 2014, the Vermont Climate Assessment published a 219 page report on how weather patterns have and continue to change drastically over the last sixty years and that climate change will continue to have both positive and negative impacts on the State of Vermont’s economy and ecology in the future. The report, conducted and composed by a team of researchers at the University of Vermont, uses data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Vermont’s Agency of Natural Resources, climate experts, and other agencies to analyze how Vermont’s climate has and continues to change and develop scientific understanding to determine probable future outcomes based on available data. This report is similar to reports released by United States government agencies on a national scale, but with the intent to better communicate with the businesses and people of Vermont on how climate change could alter their economical future. While this report pertains to the state of Vermont, data on the report is still relevant to other states in the Northeast region as well since nearby states like New York, New Hampshire, and Maine have seen similar changes to their climate and even their hardwood forests.

Using a number of sites located throughout the state of Vermont, researchers find that the average annual temperature has increased 1.3°F since 1960 in Vermont.

Data complied onto the Vermont Climate Assessment shows a linear increase in the average annual temperature in the state of Vermont since 1960. Since 1960, the average annual temperature has increased 1.3­­°F statewide. While a degree increase in temperature may not sound like that much of a change, this increase in temperature can be enough to surpass the threshold of certain species within ecosystems and completely alter them. This could be one reason why there has been an increase in beech trees in recent years while maple and birch trees have decreased. The Vermont Climate Assessment also warns that further temperature increases could alter the forestry landscape of Vermont even more as trees suitable for warmer climates could move into the region and even replace trees currently in place. With that said, the trees that currently making up the Vermont landscape could dwindle as the climate becomes more unsuitable since different trees require different suitable conditions, and cannot adept to changes in climate.

Researchers of the Vermont Climate Assessment also used sites throughout the state to calculate that the average annual precipitation has increased 5.9″ since 1960 in Vermont. This graph shows that number of days per year with >1″ of rain has increased in recent years as well.

Data complied onto the Vermont Climate Assessment shows that while temperatures have risen linearly since 1960, precipitation rates have increased nearly exponentially in recent years. One explanation for this is since warmer air has a higher saturation mixing ratio, it is able to hold more water content therefore allowing more rain to fall over any given place. This effect is also likely elevated in mountainous regions due to orographic effects, where the increase in the coverage of beech trees can be most observed. With that said, if temperatures continue to warm, the average amount of precipitation Vermont sees in any given year will likely increase as well. Just like temperature, most of the precipitation increase has occurred within the last twenty years. Excessive rainfall can be beneficial to some species of trees while unfavorable to others.

Conclusion

With a changing climate, we should be prepared to experience changes to the environment as well. Unfortunately, there is a lot of uncertainty with what exactly to expect as we can see with the hardwood forests of the Northeastern United States. This should be worrisome to us since ecologists and environmentalists are unsure of what the future has in store for many ecosystems around the world but somehow we need to prepare for the change. More extreme scenarios of climate change would completely replace the hardwood forests in Vermont with trees more suitable in southern climates by the end of the century, likely completely transforming or pushing out economic industries (i.e. logging and timberland) that currently makeup a sizable portion of Vermont’s economy. Regardless of whether that happens or not, change is inevitable, and whatever happens industries and people will have to adapt to these changes over time.

The discussed article can be viewed here: https://apnews.com/8390a9d1225d4717aaea7e55c9e264f6

The Vermont Climate Assessment can be viewed here: vtclimate.org